Chip leader: domestic replacement company is the most beneficial company!

At the end of November 2022, OPENAI, an artificial intelligence startup, released a large model of ChatGPT. After many iterations, it quickly became popular worldwide.

These large AI models have a large amount of massive demand for computing power, and also make Nvidia AI chips a phenomenal Internet celebrity in the current science and technology industry.

In November 2023, Nvidia officially released a new generation of AI chip H200. H200 has 141GB of storage memory capacity, which is almost overwhelming than previous generation product A100, which has further increased the demand for key components HBM.

In the future, as AI accelerates penetration into related fields and the demand for computing power will be further improved, the status quo of HBM supply in short supply will continue until 2025. The HBM -related industrial chain will be the focus of attention.

So, what are the advantages of HBM compared to traditional storage chips?

HBM (High Bandwidth Memory, high -bandwidth memory chip) is a new generation of storage chips that specifically solve the demand for high -performance CPU/GPUs for high bandwidth.

HBM actually uses a 3D packaging technology of a memory chip. It encapsulates multiple traditional DRAM memory chips in vertical direction, which solves the limitations of traditional DRAM's insufficient bandwidth on high -performance CPU/GPU computing power performance.Give full play to the computing power function, so the key point of technology is advanced packaging technology and corresponding packaging materials.

Taking the current Nvida GPU chip with a larger sales as an example, HBM is a larger part of Nvida GPU, accounting for 45-50%of Nvida GPU costs, which is also a key link that once stuck in the neck.

AI requires ultra -high computing power chips, which has also led to a great increase in HBM demand, and the market size continues to expand.

At present, major technology giants have also launched their own high -end chips. Nvidia has A100 and H100, AMD, Mi200 and MI300. Google also has special TPUs. The market's demand for HBM has also increased significantly.

HBM demand in 2023 is expected to increase by 58%year -on -year, and in 2024, further increased by 30%.In 2022, the global HBM market size is about 3.63 billion US dollars. It is expected that the market size will reach US $ 12.74 billion by 2026, and the CAGR from 22 to 26 will reach 37%.

The current HBM market is still led by the three international giants. In 2022, SK Hynix accounted for 50%, Samsung accounted for 40%, and Micron accounted for 10%.According to the news from the larger global volume, SK Hynix, even if HBM is 5-6 times that of the existing DRAM price, the company's production capacity of all HBM3E as of 2024 is still locked.

SK Hynix executives recently stated that it is expected that the company's HBM shipments will reach 100 million per year by 2030. The company's next investment is mainly concentrated in the HBM field, especially the 1NM DRAM amplification and for stacking with the next -generation HBM3E.Silicon penetration electrode (TSV).

Samsung is not willing to show weakness. In order to expand HBM production capacity, Samsung Display has been acquired in the construction and equipment in the Tianan Factory District, South Korea.Jie-dollar (about 3.9 billion-5.6 billion yuan).

The production capacity of large international factories will also benefit directly.

So, what companies are there in the HBM industry chain?

On the whole, the HBM industry chain is mainly composed of five major links including IP, upstream materials, grain design, chip manufacturing, packaging and testing.Since the international manufacturers adopt the IDM mode, the design, manufacturing, and sealing of chips are all included in the first -hand factories. Domestic manufacturers are mainly in the supply links of upstream equipment and materials.

1. 3D packaging key raw materials: granular epoxy plastic seal (GMC)

HBM is high in the thickness of the chip due to 3D stacks, so it is necessary to use a special granular epoxy plastic seal (GMC) packaging.

There are only 2 Japanese companies in GMC mass production, which are Japanese residents and Japan's Showa.In order to solve the problem of increasing HBM packaging thickness and large heat dissipation demand, GMC needs to add a large number of core materials LOW-α silicon and LOW-α aluminum, the cost accounts for 70%-90%of the GMC, Japan's Sumitomo, Japan's Domaica in Showa, JapanThe supplier is the new material of Lianrui, so it directly benefits from the further increase in production capacity of HBM manufacturers such as SK Hynix.

Domestic GMC has also made breakthroughs.Huahai Chengke has successfully developed granular epoxy plastic seals (GMC). Related products have passed customer verification and are now in a trial stage.In addition, Huawei has participated in Huahai Chengke through its Shenzhen Hubble Technology Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership). Once the country has opened up all links such as HBM manufacturing, the company can enter the supply chain of Huawei Shengteng chips.

2, 3D packaging key technology: TSV (silicon -hole technology)

Silicon -passing technology (TSV) is the core process of HBM, with a cost proportion of nearly 30%. It is the highest proportion of HBM packaging costs. Using this technology can achieve 3D stacks of storage chips.

China Micro Corporation is the main supplier of TSV equipment.In 2010, the first TSV deep -hole silicon etching equipment was launched, PRIMO TSV®, which provided 8 -inch and 12 -inch silicon -pelsy etching equipment.Essence

3. Main raw materials: front -drive body

Jacques is the core supplier of the main materials of the domestic material, SK Hemori and Hefei Changxin, and the subsidiary South Korea is the core supplier of HBM's absolute leader SK Hylos front drive.The National Integrated Circuit Grand Fund has stood up.

In 2022, the revenue from Hynix accounted for 50%. In the first half of 2023, the company's pre -drive business achieved revenue of 644 million yuan, an increase of 37%year -on -year.Among them, the subsidiary South Korea's Pioneers realized revenue of 673 million yuan, an increase of 45%year -on -year, and a net profit of 152 million yuan, an increase of 36%year -on -year.

It is estimated that HBM production capacity will increase by 105%in 2024. As the core supplier of Hylos's pre -drive body, the subsidiary South Korea will benefit from the high growth of HBM.The penetration rate of domestic companies in domestic storage manufacturers is also increasing, and the company's front -wheel drive materials have cooperated with TSMC and the Yangtze River storage.

In addition, the company's LDS transportation system has achieved batches of domestic mainstream integrated circuit manufacturers including Yangtze River Storage, SMIC and Shanghai Huahong.

4. IC board

HBM uses TSV technology to achieve 2.5D+3D advanced integration, while IC carrier board is a key carrier of the advanced package link of integrated circuit to achieve signal connections between IC chips and PCB boards.In the current widely used 2.5D+3D advanced packaging integrated circuits, IC carrier boards are used as the transfer board of the carrier chip. The domestic IC carrier -related companies include: Xingsen Technology, Shennan Circuit, Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd.Shenghong Technology and so on.

5. In addition, Xiangnong Citron is the domestic agent of SK HBM products. At the same time, it plans to cooperate with SK Hynix to carry out the storage module business.

6. Packaging test manufacturers of domestic HBM related technologies

Because the international three giants' HBM products packaging tests are all arranged by themselves, packaging testing manufacturers with related technologies in China cannot directly benefit from the growth of the three giants.However, once all the domestic links are opened in China, these companies with technical reserves will benefit directly.

Tai Chi Industrial: The company's Haitai Semiconductor (holding 55%of the equity) joint venture with SK Hynix, providing DRAM packaging testing business for SK Hynix.

Deep Technology: The company has 8 and 16 layers of DRAM stacking processes, which is expected to cut into the HBM packaging track.

Tongfu Microelectronics: After the company's 2.5D/3D production line is completed, it will achieve a breakthrough in the field of HBM high -performance packaging technology in China;

Guoxin Technology: The 2.5D chip packaging technology currently is studying the planning of HBM memory, and actively promotes the research and development and application of CHIPLET technology. It will also benefit and improve the valuation under the rapid development of AI.

Sanquan Technology: Nvidia GPU mold excellent dealers, the leading domestic ICT infrastructure and service providers, and the company to conduct in -depth cooperation with many domestic and foreign server chip manufacturers.

In general, in the new technology field of HBM, we have also seen the continuous efforts of domestic companies, and we also look forward to the early birth of domestic HBM products.