Storage chips and other markets have been warmed back, and vehicle chips have to fall?

In the past two months, semiconductor companies have different circuits, and the market segmentation and diversification trends are obvious.

Earlier weak consumer electronics began to show signs of warming, and thanks to this factor, the price of DRAM and NAND Flash, the storage market, rose.The car chip for two years before, according to news such as Ansonami and Morgan Stanley (Damo), began to see some weak situations, and some products are dealing with inventory.For the AI chip sector, TrendForce Juanbang Consulting analyst said that the increase in AI related demand is not enough to offset the affected influence of the business affected by the business.

This round of this cycle also shows to a certain extent that the market never relys on a certain consumer electronics/car/AI sector, and grasping the rising period of market segments may hedge the pressure brought by the industry cycle.

Supply side drive, consumer electronics recovers

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of integrated circuits from January to September this year decreased by 2.5%year-on-year, but September increased by 13.9%year-on-year; in addition, customs export data showed that the import and export of the consumer electronics industry showed a recovery momentum.In September, it rose continuously in a row, and the decline of mobile phones and computer exports in September narrowed significantly year -on -year.

It is reported that the recent market -side MediaTek released the Tianye 9300 flagship chip, Huawei Mate60 series, and Apple released three breakthrough chips M3, M3Pro, M3MAX and other actions to have a certain boosting role in consumer electronics, and the promotion at the end of the year has once again promoted consumer electronics againThe market is warmed.

At present, although the consumer electronics market has recovered, the products including notebooks and mobile phones are still in a downward trend, but the downward trend has slowed down.According to the TrendForce Bangbang Consulting Analyst Wu Yating, a seminar on the State Consultation Storage Industry Trend of Episode 2024, it is worth noting that the signs of good presentation in the market are not driven by demand, but the manufacturers' initiative to invent and continueProduct iteration upgrades are promoted, which is still the efforts that the supply side has paid.Most operators also admit that the popularity of the consumer market has not completely returned to the normal peak season of the past.

The upstream market has gradually picked up, and manufacturers look at it with caution

According to Surging News recently, as the inventory management of smartphone manufacturers comes to an end in the second half of the year, the performance of upstream components and chip manufacturers has improved significantly in the third quarter.

For example, the radio frequency and digital SOC chip, which focuses on wireless communications, Z3 achieved revenue (the same below) of 1.409 billion yuan, an annual increase of 80 %, net profit of 452 million yuan, an annual increase of 94 %, and the performance exceeded expectations exceeding expectations.increase.As of the end of the third quarter, the company's inventory was 1.394 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.8%from the end of the second quarter, and the number of days of inventory turned to 262 days, and the inventory had gradually returned to a reasonable level.Zhuo Shengwei said that most of the company's products are applied to the smartphone side, and the rise of local brand phones has a greater impact on the increase in company revenue.

Weir's financial report of the IC design is also exposed. The company's Q3 revenue was 6.223 billion yuan, an annual increase of 44.35 %, and a net profit of 215 million yuan, an annual increase of 279.61 %.Weir announced that Q3 has gradually recovered with demand, adding new products, and active de -inventive inventory, which has driven significant growth in revenue.

Some IC design manufacturers are more cautious about this warming.They said that the worst period of market demand has passed, and the market is gradually rising, but there is still a little distance from the real recovery of the consumer electronics market.After one or two months of enthusiasm, it has faded down, and its more significant growth may be waiting for 2024.

The storage market price rises

In this market warming, storage first perceives the market warmth, and prices of DRAM and NAND Flash have risen.

TrendForce Ji State Consultation's latest forecast, in the fourth quarter, the increase in MOBILE DRAM's contract prices is expected to expand to 13-18%; in terms of NAND Flash, the contract prices in the fourth quarter of EMMC and UFS rose about 10-15%.As MOBILE DRAM has always made a low profit performance than other DRAM products, it has become a leading project.

Regarding the expansion of the storage price increase, there are several reasons for Jibang Consulting. One is that from the perspective of supply, Samsung expands production reduction and increased by more than 20%of the increase, which has continued to lay the foundation of the confidence in the price increase in the industry.Second, in terms of demand, in the second half of 2023, MOBILE DRAM and NAND FLASH (EMMC, UFS) were driven by the traditional peak season, Huawei Mate 60 series, etc., also stimulated other Chinese smartphone brands to expand production targets.It has also become one of the reasons to promote the increase in contract prices in the fourth quarter.

According to industry news reports, Samsung has signed DRAM and NAND Flash chip supply agreements with smartphone brands such as Xiaomi, OPPO, Google, etc.%.The adjustment of the price information of the upstream price increase is driven. This wave of price increases began to rebound from August-September.

In addition, the revenue of many storage manufacturers such as Qunlian Electronics, Winbond, Wanghong, and ADATO has shown signs of annual growth in the past two months, which also indicates that demand is slowly recovered.

The financial report of South Asia shows that the company's third -quarter operating income was NT $ 7.736 billion, an increase of 10.1%month -on -month.During the quarter, the average DRAM sales price decreased the percentage of individual digits, and the sales volume increased by a ten -digit percentage.However, the company's gross profit margin is still declining month -on -month.

Qunlian Electronics' August revenue was NT $ 3.990 billion, an increase of 17.56%month -on -month; September revenue was NT $ 50.04 billion, an increase of 25.38%monthly, an annual increase of 4.05%, and returned to NT $ 5 billion, creating 14 14New high.Qunlian Electronics stated that the shipment volume of SSD modules in August has gradually returned. Among them, the PCLE SSD module increased by about 60%year -on -year, and the overall number of NAND bits increased by nearly 50%year -on -year.Part of the NAND control chip began to appear insufficient client inventory.Then the shipment of SSD modules continued to return to temperature in September.Among them, the growth of PCIE SSD modules has grown nearly 60%, while the overall NAND storage bit number of the number of bits (Bitgrowth Rate) also exceeds 75%.

Winbang Electronics's September revenue was NT $ 6.766 billion, a monthly increase of 5.32%, and a annual decrease of 7.96%; the third quarter revenue was NT $ 19.506 billion, a quarterly increase of 3.69%, an annual decrease of 11.92%; the cumulative revenue in the first three quarters was 558.32NT $ 100 million, an annual decrease of 25.86%.Winbon Electronics stated that the DRAM market was slightly warmed in August.

Wanghong Electronics revenue September of NT $ 2.8 billion in September, a monthly decrease of 3.8%. In the third quarter, revenue was NT $ 7.283 billion, a quarterly decrease of 1.97%, a annual decrease of 36.51%; the cumulative revenue in the first three quarters was NT $ 21.816 billion.The annual decrease of 36.6%.Wanghong said that the car NOR FLASH in the second half of 2023 is expected to recover quarter by quarter.

In September, Willing achieved a double -year increase, and September merged NT $ 3.342 billion in revenue, a new high in 22 months, an increase of 12.49 % monthly and an annual increase of 3.96 %.In the third quarter, the revenue season increased by more than 25 % to 8.592 billion yuan.9月其DRAM占整体营收比重49.58％，SSD占比为33.94％，闪存卡、U盘及其他产品为16.48％；第3季DRAM营收占比为46.65％，SSD 34.51％，闪存卡、The U disk and other products are 18.84 %.At the beginning of October, Chairman Chen Libai said that the storage chip industry has been suffering for two years, and the darkness will be over, and a shortage of shortages may occur in the second half of 2024.He believes that as the three major storage chip giants have actively reduced production and benefits have begun to appear, NAND and DRAM's recent spot prices have shown a double -digit rebound from the trough.

The car chip is temporarily weak, and long -term demand is unchanged

Unlike the above -mentioned consumer electronics, IC design, and storage chip warming/price increases, automotive electronics has recently experienced noise.

Recently, Hassane El-Khoury, CEO of the large chip factory, said: We began to see some weak situations. European first-class customers are dealing with inventory, and the risk of automobile demand has continued to increase due to high interest rates.EL-Khouse also said that the company is still optimistic about the demand for the electric vehicle market, but the speed will slow down.

In April of this year, Morgan Stanley (Damo) had issued early warnings. The downward risk of the car chip market increased greatly, especially the MOSFET demand for vehicles was weak. Moreover, IC manufacturers of vehicle power management gradually lost their pricing capabilities.At that time, TSMC stated that although the demand for automobile chips was stable, it would weaken in the second half of the year, and Li Ji Power also said that MOSFET and IGBT demand for vehicles was declining.

In this regard, industry insiders said that the car chip market has experienced crazy growth in 2021 and 2022, and its short -term growth rate is also normal.However, its short -term oscillation will not change the long -term rise.In particular, the electrification, networking, intelligence, and sharing of cars will promote the electronicization of automotives into a new stage of development.

In the future, the demand for automobile chip still has strong demand in the future. It can also look at the chip delivery period and financial report of companies such as Ansonami, Ruisa, and Semiconductor Semiconductor.

In terms of payment period, according to Ansonmei's financial report, the company's car chip in October is still long, which remains at 40-50 weeks.In October, the Ti company's car chip was still out of stock; ADI's automotive chip demand continued to grow, and most chips are currently out of stock; some of the inventory of some car chip in NXP consumption is close to the end.The overall delivery period is continuously improved.

财报上，意法半导体第三季度营收44.3亿美元，同比上涨2.55%，环比上涨2.31%，营收表现主要受到汽车业务持续增长的推动，但部分被消费类电子产品收入下降抵消；瑞萨The latest quarter of electronics was 379.4 billion yen, a decrease of 2.1%year -on -year, an increase of 2.9%month -on -month. The sales of automobile business increased by 11.7%year -on -year, which promoted the growth of overall performance.

In general, the automotive chip industry is still in the development stage of the Chaoyang. The development of the new and four industries is in full swing. The hotness of the AI market has also given car electronics to a certain extent. Although it is affected by cyclical weakness in the short term, the overall demand is still rising development.Essence

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