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Home > Industry Information > Forecasting the semiconductor trend in 2024
According to the latest report released by the municipal adjustment agency on Monday, global semiconductor revenue in 2024 is expected to increase by 16.8%to $ 624 billion。
According to the latest forecast of the municipal adjustment agency, global semiconductor revenue in 2023 is expected to fall by 10.9%to $ 534 billion.The market will increase by 16.8%in 2024 to $ 624 billion.
At the end of 2023, the strong demand for the chip of artificial intelligence (AI) working loads such as supporting graphics processing units (GPUs) (GPU) is not enough to save the semiconductor industry in 2023.Said.The demand for smartphones and personal computer customers is reduced, and the weakness of data centers/large -scale expenditures is affecting the decline in income this year.
However, it is expected that 2024 will be the year of rebound. Driven by the double -digit growth of the memory market, the revenue of all chip types will grow (see Figure 1).
Figure 1.2021-2025 global semiconductor revenue forecast (one billion US dollars)
Source: Gartner
The agency predicts that the global memory market will decrease by 38.8%in 2023 and will rebound in 2024, an increase of 66.3%.
The decline in pricing caused by weak demand and over -scale excessive supply will lead to a decrease of NAND flash memory revenue by 38.8%, and revenue will drop to $ 35.4 billion by 2023.In the next 3-6 months, the pricing of the NAND industry will bottom out, and the situation of the supplier will improve.Gartner analysts predict that a strong recovery will occur in 2024, and the income will increase to $ 53 billion, an increase of 49.6%year -on -year.
Due to the serious excess supply and insufficient demand, DRAM manufacturers have lowered market prices to reduce inventory.By the fourth quarter of 2023, the DRAM market's over -demand will continue, which will trigger a price rebound.However, the impact of rising prices will not appear until 2024. By then, DRAM revenue is expected to increase by 88%to $ 87.4 billion.
Recently, IDC has also raised its outlook on the global semiconductor market, and believes that the semiconductor market will bottom out next year and resume accelerated growth.IDC's expected revenue in 2023 was expected to be raised from US $ 518.8 billion to $ 526.5 billion in the new forecast.IDC believes that from the perspective of demand, the US market will remain flexible, and the Chinese market will begin to recover in the second half of 2024. Therefore, revenue expectations in 2024 will also be adjusted from US $ 625.9 billion to $ 632.8 billion.
IDC believes that with the long -term inventory of the two larger market segments of personal computers and smartphones, the prospect of semiconductor growth will be better.As electrification continues to promote semiconductor content in the next ten years, the high inventory level in the automotive and industrial sector is expected to return to normal levels in the second half of 2024.From 2024 to 2026, the launch of technology and large flagship products will promote more semiconductor content and value of the entire market segment, including the launch of the artificial intelligence personal computer (AI PC) and artificial intelligence smartphones (AI Smartphone) next year.And the urgent need of memory ASP and DRAM bit capacity.
Rudy Torrijos, a global semiconductor supply chain technical intelligence research manager, said: "As the semiconductor market recovery continues to grow, we have upgraded the market prospects to growth. Although suppliers' inventory levels are still high, the channels and primitive channels and primitives of key segmented markets areIn the equipment manufacturer, the visibility is significantly improved. We expect income growth to match the needs of the end user. Therefore, we expect that capital expenditures will improve, so as to start a new investment cycle in the supply chain. "
According to Mario Morales, Vice President of the ADC Semiconductor Hedo Technology Group, said: "Overall, IDC expects that the entire semiconductor industry will decrease by 12%in 2023, which is improved from our outlook in September. The income will continue to be gradually recovered and in 2024 in 2024The annual acceleration. The semiconductor market has bottomed out and has begun to grow on a quarter -quarter. The average price of DRAM is improving. This is a good early indicator. IDC is expected to continue to control the increase and utilization of capacity to promote sustainable sustainable availabilityRecovery. The acceleration of the demand for artificial intelligence servers and terminal devices supporting artificial intelligence will promote more semiconductor content in 2024-2026, thereby promoting the new upgrade cycle of enterprises.Near $ 200 billion in semiconductor income. "
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